Human and Machine Learning with Lloyd Danzig, Founder & CEO of Sharp Alpha Advisors & Chairman of ICED(AI)
The Most Important Thing
Review the list of cognitive biases in the show notes. Try to gain a deeper understanding for how these biases impact you on a day-to-day basis. Also learn how you already interact with Artificial Intelligence daily.
About Lloyd Danzig
Lloyd is the Chairman & Founder of the International Consortium for the Ethical Development of Artificial Intelligence, a 501(c)(3) non-profit dedicated to ensuring that rapid developments in A.I. are made with a keen eye toward the long-term interests of humanity. He is also the Founder & CEO of Sharp Alpha Advisors, a sports gaming advisory firm with a focus on companies deploying cutting-edge tech.
Lloyd is the Co-Host of The AI Experience, a podcast providing an accessible analysis of relevant AI news and topics. He also serves as Co-Chairman of CompTIA AI Advisory Council, a committee of preeminent thought leaders focused on establishing industry best practices that benefit businesses while protecting consumers.
He has previously managed institutional portfolios for BlackRock, data science initiatives for Samsung, and Machine Learning engines for sportsbook operators, along with a lifelong passion for entrepreneurship and innovation.
He has been privileged to be featured as a guest speaker on the evolving role of Machine Learning in gaming at numerous prestigious universities including Stanford University, Columbia University, and The Wharton School of Business, in addition to private sector conferences including QConAI, Betting on Sports, The AI Summit, MathSport International, Data Council NY, Sport & Society, and IAGR 2019.
About The International Consortium for Ethical Development of Artificial Intelligence
ICED(AI) is a non-profit NGO dedicated to ensuring that rapid developments in the field of Artificial Intelligence are made with a keen eye toward the long-term interests of humanity.
About Sharp Alpha Advisors
Sharp Alpha Advisors is a consultancy and advisory firm specializing in sports betting startups, technology, and investments.
Episode Overview:
I learned A TON from this episode about artificial intelligence, machine learning, and more. Lloyd and I discussed cognitive biases, free will, prediction markets, human’s difficulty predicting outcomes, and God as a supercomputer.
My Favorite Quotes:
“Usually as humans we need some kind of catastrophe to learn our lesson in any way.”
“Being poor at predicting events is just one of the many symptoms of the cognitive biases that really impact people in their day to day life, particularly in ways that they don’t understand.”
“People like being right and people like holding logically consistent views.”
“Consequence of our natural instincts, people being patter recognizers, and just the fact that people have a hard time separating the concept of criticism of an idea versus criticism of a person who holds that idea.”
“I’m a big believer in the wisdom of crowds – a lot of people averaging opinions together and you naturally get rid of the outliers.”
“Look at what the other side is saying and look at how smart, respectable, people on that side articulate their points.”
“There is ample academic literature that shows the best predictive features that we can look at to gauge the likelihood of the outcome of a sporting event, comes from betting markets with the highest amounts liquidity. The implied probability with the odds right when the Super Bowl starts, is usually the best predictor of the probabilities that we have.”
“The interesting thing about sports betting is that, yes, there is an outcome, but the true probability of a team winning, cannot be known ahead of time.”
“If you want to raise $100 million just say that you are working on a blockchain-based AI solution for any industry.”
“The greatest danger of AI is that we seed power to it too early”
“You are completely outmatched by any algorithm that you are trying to fool.”
“I don’t believe in the Libertarian view of Free Will.”
Episode Breakdown:
00:00 – COVID and our failure to accurately predict outcomes
04:00 – Black swans and white swans
07:00 – Cognitive Biases
13:00 – How to Address our Own Cognitive Biases
18:00 – Wisdom of the Crowds & Prediction Markets
26:00 – Predicting outcomes and universality of truth
31:00 – Difference between Automation, Artificial Intelligence, Machine Learning, and Deep Learning
37:00 – How we interact with Deep Learning every day
45:00 – Where AI already goes wrong
57:00 – The Cobra Effect & The Paper Clip Optimizer
1:10:00 – Religion, God as a supercomputer, and Free Will
1:15:00 – The Metaverse
Episode Links:
Lloyd’s Info
The Road to Artificial Intelligence: An Ethical Minefield
Sharp Alpha Advisors
The International Consortium for Ethical Development of Artificial Intelligence Info
Other Resources & References
Survivorship Bias, Shane Parrish on Farnam Street
Confirmation Bias, Shane Parrish on Farnam Street
Marc’s Info:
Marc Weinstein, host of the Look Up! Podcast is a public speaker for corporations, universities, and conferences. Click here to view past talks and to book Marc
Episode Correction: I quoted the estimated number of DeFi users (a subsection of the cryptocurrency industry). The number of estimated worldwide crypto wallets is orders of magnitude larger – between 40-60M individuals.
